Carnival (NYSE:CCL) executives highlighted record results in fiscal 2025 and laid out guidance for another year of earnings growth in 2026 during the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Management also announced the resumption of a quarterly dividend and detailed plans to unify the company’s dual-listed corporate structure into a single New York Stock Exchange listing.
Record 2025 performance and fourth-quarter outperformance
CEO Josh Weinstein said the company delivered “historical fourth-quarter highs” for revenue, yields, operating income and EBITDA, and said those record results were achieved in each quarter of the year and for the full year. Weinstein said 2025 produced “over $3 billion to the bottom line,” representing a 60% increase versus 2024 and an all-time high net income for the company. He added that full-year results were more than 30% above the company’s initial guidance.
CFO David Bernstein said fourth-quarter net income was $454 million, nearly two and a half times the prior-year period, and exceeded the company’s September guidance by $154 million, or $0.11 per share. Bernstein said the outperformance versus September guidance was driven primarily by stronger revenue and lower-than-expected cruise costs excluding fuel.
Bernstein said yields rose 5.4% versus the prior year in the quarter, beating September guidance by 110 basis points, driven by “continued strong close-in demand,” higher ticket prices and “an acceleration of strong onboard spending.” Cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day (ALBD) rose 0.5% year over year, which he said was 2.7 points better than September guidance. Bernstein also cited favorable fuel prices, fuel consumption and mix, slightly lower depreciation, favorable net interest expense, and other smaller items as contributors.
Bookings, demand trends, and 2026 yield outlook
Weinstein said the company entered 2026 “about two-thirds booked,” in line with the prior year at the same point, at “historical high prices” in both North America and Europe. He also said the company achieved record booking volumes for both 2026 and 2027 over the prior three months. Weinstein pointed to strong “closing demand,” onboard revenue per diem “significantly outperforming prior year levels,” and customer deposits up 7% year over year to an all-time high at year-end.
Management repeatedly addressed questions about Caribbean capacity growth and macro indicators. Weinstein said the company’s 2026 guidance incorporates a 14% increase in non-Carnival Corporation capacity growth in the Caribbean and referenced the company’s 4% capacity growth over the prior two years. He also said demand has proven resilient despite weak consumer sentiment readings during 2025, arguing that booking behavior has been stronger than traditional macro indicators would suggest.
For 2026, Weinstein said the company expects another year of same-ship yield improvement and forecast a 3% yield increase on a normalized basis, adjusting for accounting changes related to Carnival Cruise Line’s new loyalty program and deployment changes tied to geopolitical uncertainty in the Arabian Gulf. Bernstein said the company’s December guidance assumes approximately 2.5% yield growth, which is “really 3% when normalized” for those factors. He said the improvement reflects both higher ticket prices and continued strength in onboard spending.
On the upcoming quarter, Bernstein said first-quarter 2026 yield improvement is expected to be about 1.6%, or 2.4% on a normalized basis. He noted a difficult comparison to a record first quarter in 2025, plus the impact of industry-wide Caribbean capacity growth and the lingering effects of volatility in the first half of the prior year on the booking curve.
Costs, inflation, and regulatory items in 2026 guidance
Weinstein said the company expects to continue mitigating inflation through cost management and guided to 2026 unit cost growth of 3.25%, noting the absence of ship deliveries in 2026. Bernstein said cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to rise about 3.25% for the full year, or about 2.5% on a normalized basis after accounting for:
- Operating expenses for full-year operations at Celebration Key and the mid-year opening of a new pier at Relax Away Half Moon Cay (about half a point impact on year-over-year cost comparisons)
- The shifting of some expenses from fourth-quarter 2025 into 2026 (about three-tenths of a point)
Bernstein said the main drivers of the normalized 2.5% cost increase include inflation, dry dock scheduling and classification dynamics, and approximately 1.1% of cost mitigation from efficiency initiatives and leveraging scale. He said the company expects 604 dry dock days in 2026 and noted that while total spending is expected to be roughly in line with 2025, more of the 2026 spending will be classified as operating expense rather than capital expenditures.
Bernstein also said regulatory costs tied to emission allowances and higher income taxes driven by Pillar Two are expected to reduce earnings by $0.11 per share. On emission allowances specifically, he said 2026 reflects a move to 100% versus 70% in 2025, along with a slight projected increase in EU allowance costs.
Deleveraging progress, dividend reinstatement, and capital allocation
Weinstein said the company generated significant cash flow and entered 2026 about a year ahead of its balance sheet improvement schedule. Bernstein said Carnival ended fiscal 2025 with an investment-grade net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4 times and completed a $19 billion refinancing plan in less than a year. He said the company has reduced debt by over $10 billion since its peak less than three years ago and expects more than $700 million improvement in net interest expense in 2026 versus 2023, which is reflected in guidance.
Weinstein announced the company is “formally resuming” its dividend at $0.15 per quarter, which management expects to grow responsibly over time. He said the company plans to continue deleveraging to below three times net debt to EBITDA while allowing for opportunistic share repurchases in the future. Weinstein also said the company called the remainder of its convertible debt and used cash “to take out 18 million shares.”
For 2026, Bernstein guided to net income of over $3.45 billion, an improvement of more than 12% versus 2025, and EBITDA of over $7.6 billion. He said the company expects to reach a net debt to EBITDA ratio under three times by the end of 2026 even after modeling four dividend payments, and later noted a longer-term target around 2.75 times, which he said would support a “triple B rating.”
Corporate structure simplification and destination strategy
Bernstein said the company is recommending that shareholders unify the current dual-listed company (DLC) structure into a single company listed solely on the NYSE. Under the plan, Carnival PLC shareholders would receive Carnival Corporation shares on a one-for-one basis, and the PLC shares and ADSs would be delisted, with Carnival PLC becoming a wholly owned U.K. subsidiary. He said the change would create a single global share price, streamline governance and reporting, reduce administrative costs, and potentially increase liquidity and U.S. index weighting. Management expects shareholder meetings in April and, if approved, completion in the second quarter of 2026. Bernstein said the cost savings are “a few million” upfront and ongoing, with a payback of less than two years.
Weinstein also discussed destination investments, describing Celebration Key as a “real differentiator” and pointing to an upcoming expansion at Half Moon Cay, a planned Isla Tropical development in Roatán, and a new guest experience being developed with partners in Ensenada, Mexico. On Celebration Key, Weinstein said the company recently welcomed its one millionth guest and that results are tracking expectations, including ticket premium, shore operations output, and fuel consumption.
About Carnival (NYSE:CCL)
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) is a global cruise operator that provides leisure travel services through a portfolio of passenger cruise brands. The company’s core business is operating cruise ships that offer multi-night voyages and associated vacation services, including onboard accommodations, dining, entertainment, spa and wellness offerings, casinos, youth programs, and organized shore excursions. Carnival markets cruise vacations to a broad range of consumers, from value-focused travelers to premium and luxury segments, through differentiated brand positioning and onboard experiences.
Its operating structure comprises multiple well-known cruise brands that target distinct geographic and demographic markets.
