Grant Isaac, president and chief operating officer of Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), told conference attendees that 2025 marked another step in nuclear power’s shift from a post-Fukushima “wilderness” period to a core part of national policy discussions focused on climate, energy security and national security.
Isaac said nuclear power has “fully emerged” as a national security solution alongside its role as a carbon-free, resilient source of 24-hour baseload electricity. He pointed to government and industry activity that, in his view, is beginning to translate into new reactor build momentum and tighter fuel-cycle fundamentals.
U.S. new-build momentum and the AP1000 program
Looking ahead, Isaac referenced a May 23 executive order calling for 10 large nuclear power plants to be under construction by 2030. He said meeting that timeline would require ordering long-lead equipment in 2026, while also progressing work to identify sites and deployment models.
Isaac described several possible structures for projects, ranging from government-led build-own-operate approaches to utility-led projects and models involving transfers or long-term power purchase agreements. He added that financing could include foreign direct investment pledged to the U.S. from Japan and Korea.
He also said the $80 billion project is “contained” and separate from other potential U.S. reactor efforts, noting that projects such as VC Summer and the Fermi project in Michigan are “in addition.” In discussing broader financing availability, he referenced what he called the Energy Dominance Financing Department (formerly the Loan Programs Office), saying it has “$250 billion” already appropriated for energy new build and could allocate capital to nuclear projects.
International outlook: Poland, Bulgaria, Korea and Canada
Isaac said 2026 could be a “big year” for final investment decisions (FIDs) on AP1000 projects outside the U.S., specifically citing Poland and Bulgaria. He said Poland plans to build six AP1000s, with the first three sites selected, while Bulgaria plans to build two and is moving through front-end engineering and design as it accelerates toward FID.
He also noted a partnership with Korean counterparts, describing Korea as a “collaborator” rather than a competitor, and said he expects new-build progress that would benefit Westinghouse.
On Canada, Isaac said the country faces a “stark choice” if it wants to deploy gigawatt-scale reactors now. He argued that because there is no Generation 3 CANDU design currently available, Canada could either proceed with AP1000 deployments or accept a long timeline to design and build a new heavy-water Gen 3 reactor. He also pointed to Canada’s selection of GE’s BWRX-300 for the Darlington small modular reactor project as evidence that the country has already pivoted toward light-water reactor technology.
Uranium: supply discipline, contracting, and pricing structure
Isaac said nuclear fuel markets are responding to years of “unacceptably low prices” across uranium, conversion, enrichment and fabrication, which limited investment and contributed to tight supply. He argued that markets are now “waking up” to the need for higher prices to bring forward new investment.
On uranium supply and demand, Isaac said widely used demand forecasts understate potential growth because they are largely built on existing reactor fleets and only include new builds that have reached FID. He said that means forecasts do not yet include projects such as the U.S. AP1000 initiative, potential builds in Bulgaria and Poland prior to FID, Ontario’s plan for 14 gigawatt-scale reactors, or potential demand tied to generative AI and data centers.
On supply, he said the market often overstates how quickly new production can arrive, arguing that preliminary economic assessments are sometimes treated like fully permitted operating assets even when licenses, infrastructure and workforces are not in place.
Isaac said Cameco remains “disciplined,” noting that about 30% of the company’s production remains shut in or curtailed as it waits for contracting and prices that justify new supply. He said the company does not want to “front-run demand with supply,” preferring to be “at or slightly late the market” to improve contracting leverage.
Replacement rate, inventories, and the vulnerability to a shock
Isaac said a key measure of uranium market health is whether utilities are contracting at “replacement rate”—entering new contracts that replace the uranium they consume. He said utilities have not collectively contracted at replacement rate since 2012, relying instead on secondary supply and inventory drawdowns.
According to Isaac, the market’s “mobile inventory position” is now the lowest it has ever been, while the traditional “shock absorbers” have diminished. He referenced the absence of past sources such as government inventory drawdowns and the Megatons to Megawatts program.
He also said the long-term uranium price is about $86 per pound, and characterized it as unusual to see that level “on the front end of a contracting cycle.” While he emphasized Cameco sells exclusively into the term market, he explained that the long-term price published by price reporters is largely based on base-escalated contracts and does not capture most market-related contracts.
Isaac said 70% of 2025 contracting was market-related and 30% was base-escalated. He added that market-related contracts often include floors and ceilings (collars), and he cited examples that included escalated floors in the “mid-70s” and ceilings “as high as $150 escalated,” with midpoints implying “three-digit” uranium pricing. Isaac said Cameco at times accepts a portion of base-escalated pricing to help move reported long-term prices higher, because reporting mechanisms omit much of the market-related contracting information.
On what could force utilities into more aggressive buying, Isaac said fuel buyers are highly trained and typically insulated from short-term price spikes through averaging effects across contracts and fuel capitalization. As a result, he said the sector often requires a “shock” to spur contracting, whether from supply disruptions, delays in new mines, or demand surprises. He said he does not know what the next shock will be, but argued the market is “more vulnerable” than in the past due to lower inventories.
Westinghouse supply chain and build capacity
Asked whether the supply chain can scale to multiple AP1000 builds per year, Isaac said his estimate is that the industry could “launch four reactors a year.” He said that pace could result in 20 reactors under construction by year five, assuming a roughly 60-month build timeline, with additional supply-chain capitalization needed to exceed that rate.
Isaac said successful execution will depend on what he called the “three S’s”:
- Standardize: build the same plant design repeatedly, “Vogtle 4 over and over again.”
- Sequence: stage construction resources across projects rather than trying to start all builds simultaneously.
- Simplify: improve the transfer of lessons learned from project to project.
He concluded that, with the right approach, the AP1000 buildout is “a deliverable program,” and said 2026 should be an important year for both long-lead equipment orders and broader contracting activity across the nuclear fuel cycle.
About Cameco (NYSE:CCJ)
Cameco Corporation (NYSE: CCJ) is a leading producer of uranium and a supplier to the global nuclear power industry. Headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, the company is engaged in the exploration, mining, milling and sale of uranium concentrate, commonly known as yellowcake, which is used as fuel for nuclear reactors. Cameco also participates in services and activities that support the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, including processing and marketing of uranium to utilities under long‑term and spot contracts.
The company’s operations have historically centered in Canada and the United States, where it operates and develops uranium mining and processing properties.
