United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) executives said the carrier delivered year-over-year earnings growth in 2025 despite what management described as an unusually challenging operating environment, and they forecast higher profit in 2026 as demand trends improve and the industry backdrop stabilizes.
2025 results: earnings growth despite disruptions
Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said 2025 was “a proof point” for United’s strategy of building a “revenue-diverse, brand-loyal airline,” calling the model “remarkably resilient in tough times.” Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.10, within the company’s $3.00 to $3.50 guidance range, despite a $250 million pre-tax earnings impact tied to a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
On the revenue line, Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said fourth-quarter revenue rose 4.8% to $15.4 billion on a 6.5% increase in capacity year over year. Consolidated RASM declined 1.6%, though Nocella said the quarter was United’s highest revenue quarter ever. Premium cabins continued to outperform, with premium cabin revenue up 12% year over year on 7% more capacity. For the year, Nocella said premium revenue increased about 11%, while standard and basic economy revenue fell about 5%.
Customer experience, reliability, and operational response
President Brett Hart highlighted customer experience and communication efforts, noting an “almost three-point increase” in overall Net Promoter Score for 2025. Hart also pointed to November results, when he said United recorded the best NPS month in company history amid “an unprecedented government shutdown and real-time flight reductions.”
Hart said United introduced new app features in the fourth quarter, including enhanced mobile bag tracking, virtual gate real-time boarding updates, and more detailed arrival information. He said more than 85% of customers used the United app on the day of travel.
Chief Operating Officer Toby Enqvist emphasized operational performance during a year that included FAA-directed temporary departure reductions at 40 major airports due to staffing and system constraints linked to the government shutdown. Enqvist said United prioritized protecting long-haul international and hub-to-hub flying, concentrating most reductions on regional flying and non-hub domestic routes and trimming frequency rather than eliminating connectivity. He said cancellations were published several days in advance and communicated through the app and website, and that nearly 60% of customers whose flights were canceled were rebooked within four hours of the original departure time.
Enqvist said United produced the highest seat completion factor in its history and ranked first among the “big three legacy carriers” in 2025. He also said United flew a record 189 million passengers, ranked number one in Star D0 for the second year in a row, and delivered 134 days of perfect completion in United Express operations. Over the holiday period, he said United led the industry in on-time departures and arrivals and canceled less than 1% of flights.
Commercial themes: premium strength, main cabin weakness, and loyalty
Management reiterated that premium demand remained strong while standard main cabin demand showed weakness. In response to an analyst question, Kirby said he believed main cabin performance would eventually improve, tying current softness to “unprofitable capacity offered by others.” He added that he could not predict the timing but said he remained bullish that the main cabin would “flip” at some point, which he said would be a meaningful tailwind for margins and industry health.
Nocella said international demand improved in the fourth quarter after a more challenging third quarter, with the Pacific and Atlantic showing positive PRASM trends. He said Latin America was challenged again in the quarter and that United made “aggressive Latin capacity adjustments” for the first quarter of 2026 to address underperformance. He also cited a measurable negative booking impact in the Caribbean linked to recent geopolitical events; later, he said demand had been affected “to some extent” by “the situation in Venezuela,” though he described it as not meaningful for United in the “grand scheme of things” and noted that booking trends had improved in recent days.
On loyalty, Nocella said 2025 loyalty revenue increased 9%, with remuneration from global co-brands up 12% for the year and 14% for the quarter. He said United added more than 1 million new co-brand cards for the third consecutive year. Kirby addressed possible changes in the credit card ecosystem, saying United was in constant contact with Chase and that United’s portfolio would likely be impacted less than many others because MileagePlus co-brand holders tend to have higher FICO scores, lower revolve rates, and low loss rates.
Nocella outlined commercial priorities for 2026, including seasonal shaping of long-haul capacity as peak demand spreads into other parts of the year, enhanced merchandising (including what he called the largest redesign of United.com in a decade), enhanced connectivity as the United Next plan approaches its goals, further focus on MileagePlus, and continued premiumization. He said four elevated 787s were being prepared for delivery in the coming weeks, with 16 more expected during the rest of 2026, and that premium capacity growth would account for more than half of the company’s growth in 2026.
2026 outlook: higher EPS, investment-grade push, and fleet growth
Leskinen guided to first-quarter 2026 EPS of $1.00 to $1.50, which he said implies about a 37% earnings improvement at the midpoint versus the prior-year quarter, along with year-over-year margin expansion. For full-year 2026, United forecast EPS of $12 to $14, which Leskinen said implies more than 20% growth at the midpoint and continued margin expansion “as we march towards double-digit margins.”
On costs, Leskinen said fourth-quarter CASM-ex rose 0.4% year over year, and full-year 2025 CASM-ex was also up 0.4%. He attributed efficiency gains to a strong operation and what he called a broader cultural shift toward cost discipline, citing automation through the app, an overhaul of global procurement that delivered $150 million in run-rate savings in its first year, and technology used to model demand in technical operations.
United also discussed capital allocation and the balance sheet. Leskinen said United generated $2.7 billion of free cash flow in 2025 and expected a similar level in 2026 given higher aircraft deliveries. He said United paid down $1.9 billion of high-cost COVID-era debt in 2025, reduced total cost of debt to 4.7%, and ended the year with net leverage of 2.2x. United received five credit rating upgrades across Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch over the last 13 months and is “one notch below investment-grade” at all three agencies. Leskinen said the company is targeting net leverage below 2.0x in 2026 with the intention of achieving investment-grade metrics by year-end.
For 2026 fleet plans, Leskinen said United expects deliveries of more than 100 aircraft, including about 100 narrowbodies and approximately 20 widebodies, with capital expenditures expected to be less than $8 billion. He also said United had $782 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization and would balance buybacks with its investment-grade priority.
In Q&A, management addressed competitive dynamics, including Chicago. Kirby said United’s brand-loyal strategy has “inoculate[d]” the airline from competitive activity and stated that in 2025 United’s Chicago hub made a $500 million profit. He added that United would “draw a line in the sand” in 2026 to protect its gate position and said the company would add flights as required to maintain its gate count, without providing a specific number.
About United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc operates United Airlines, a major U.S. full-service passenger carrier providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company offers a comprehensive route network that covers domestic markets across the United States as well as extensive international service to Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Pacific. United operates a mixed fleet of narrow- and wide-body aircraft on point-to-point and hub-and-spoke routes, and supports corporate and leisure travel through offerings such as premium cabins, basic economy, and ancillary services including baggage, seat selection and in-flight amenities.
In addition to passenger operations, United provides cargo services through United Cargo, handling freight, mail and specialized shipments.
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