HC Wainwright Issues Pessimistic Forecast for BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Price

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) had its price objective reduced by stock analysts at HC Wainwright from $8.00 to $6.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday,Benzinga reports. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. HC Wainwright’s target price indicates a potential upside of 56.66% from the stock’s current price. HC Wainwright also issued estimates for BigBear.ai’s Q1 2026 earnings at ($0.05) EPS, Q2 2026 earnings at ($0.05) EPS and FY2027 earnings at ($0.19) EPS.

BBAI has been the subject of several other research reports. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered BigBear.ai from an “overweight” rating to a “neutral” rating and cut their price target for the company from $7.00 to $6.00 in a research note on Wednesday, January 7th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Saturday, January 10th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Stock Up 0.8%

BBAI opened at $3.83 on Tuesday. The firm has a market cap of $1.82 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -3.83 and a beta of 3.49. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a current ratio of 1.78. The firm’s 50-day simple moving average is $5.12 and its 200-day simple moving average is $5.88. BigBear.ai has a twelve month low of $2.36 and a twelve month high of $9.39.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last released its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. The firm had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 18.22%. The company’s revenue for the quarter was down 37.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned ($0.43) earnings per share. Equities research analysts anticipate that BigBear.ai will post -0.28 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On BigBear.ai

Large investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd increased its stake in BigBear.ai by 77.1% during the 4th quarter. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd now owns 13,756 shares of the company’s stock worth $74,000 after purchasing an additional 5,987 shares in the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. lifted its stake in BigBear.ai by 56.5% in the fourth quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 250,973 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,355,000 after buying an additional 90,612 shares in the last quarter. State of Tennessee Department of Treasury bought a new stake in shares of BigBear.ai during the fourth quarter worth $149,000. NewEdge Advisors LLC lifted its position in BigBear.ai by 3.4% in the 4th quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 124,239 shares of the company’s stock valued at $671,000 after acquiring an additional 4,073 shares in the last quarter. Finally, VARCOV Co. acquired a new position in BigBear.ai in the 4th quarter worth $240,000. 7.55% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Key Stories Impacting BigBear.ai

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BigBear reported a transformed balance sheet — roughly $462M in cash and marketable securities and a ~90% reduction in debt, which materially reduces refinancing risk and gives the company runway to invest in growth. BigBear.ai Strengthens Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer and others) add FedRAMP-certified capabilities, recurring revenue and government market access — potential catalysts for revenue recovery and higher-margin, repeatable contracts. MarketBeat: Smart Money Buying
• Neutral Sentiment: The company beat EPS expectations modestly (reported -$0.01 vs. est. -$0.05) but missed revenue (Q4 revenue $27.3M vs. estimates ~ $33M) and provided FY2026 revenue guidance ($135M–$165M) below the consensus — a mixed report that explains the swingy market reaction. Earnings Release & Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst coverage is thin but active: HC Wainwright remains a buyer with a $6 PT (lowered from $8) while other shops trimmed targets or moved to neutral — showing divergence in expectations and leaving the name sensitive to new research. (See coverage cited in press summaries.)
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue slump: Q4 revenue fell ~37.7% YoY (from $43.8M to $27.3M), largely due to lower Army program volume — a near-term demand headwind for core government-related revenue. Revenues Slump
• Negative Sentiment: Capital raise dilution and prior share issuance expanded the float materially (share count jumped ~75%), which increased short interest and created downside volatility risk if operational recovery is slower than hoped. Dilution & Short Interest
• Negative Sentiment: Sell-side and market reaction: the stock fell sharply on heavy volume after the report (high intraday volatility), reflecting investor concern about near-term revenue and the pace of commercial recovery. Forbes: Stock Drop After Earnings

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.