BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Trading Down 7.1% After Analyst Downgrade

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) shares fell 7.1% during trading on Tuesday after Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price target on the stock from $6.00 to $5.00. Cantor Fitzgerald currently has a neutral rating on the stock. BigBear.ai traded as low as $3.70 and last traded at $3.81. 51,773,371 shares were traded during trading, a decline of 22% from the average session volume of 66,258,664 shares. The stock had previously closed at $4.10.

A number of other equities research analysts also recently commented on BBAI. HC Wainwright reduced their price objective on shares of BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday. Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. Finally, Wall Street Zen cut BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Saturday, January 10th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $5.00.

Key BigBear.ai News

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BigBear reported a transformed balance sheet — roughly $462M in cash and marketable securities and a ~90% reduction in debt, which materially reduces refinancing risk and gives the company runway to invest in growth. BigBear.ai Strengthens Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer and others) add FedRAMP-certified capabilities, recurring revenue and government market access — potential catalysts for revenue recovery and higher-margin, repeatable contracts. MarketBeat: Smart Money Buying
• Neutral Sentiment: The company beat EPS expectations modestly (reported -$0.01 vs. est. -$0.05) but missed revenue (Q4 revenue $27.3M vs. estimates ~ $33M) and provided FY2026 revenue guidance ($135M–$165M) below the consensus — a mixed report that explains the swingy market reaction. Earnings Release & Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst coverage is thin but active: HC Wainwright remains a buyer with a $6 PT (lowered from $8) while other shops trimmed targets or moved to neutral — showing divergence in expectations and leaving the name sensitive to new research. (See coverage cited in press summaries.)
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue slump: Q4 revenue fell ~37.7% YoY (from $43.8M to $27.3M), largely due to lower Army program volume — a near-term demand headwind for core government-related revenue. Revenues Slump
• Negative Sentiment: Capital raise dilution and prior share issuance expanded the float materially (share count jumped ~75%), which increased short interest and created downside volatility risk if operational recovery is slower than hoped. Dilution & Short Interest
• Negative Sentiment: Sell-side and market reaction: the stock fell sharply on heavy volume after the report (high intraday volatility), reflecting investor concern about near-term revenue and the pace of commercial recovery. Forbes: Stock Drop After Earnings

Hedge Funds Weigh In On BigBear.ai

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of BBAI. Arizona State Retirement System grew its holdings in BigBear.ai by 2.2% in the third quarter. Arizona State Retirement System now owns 86,166 shares of the company’s stock valued at $562,000 after purchasing an additional 1,823 shares during the last quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC boosted its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 6.4% in the 4th quarter. Farther Finance Advisors LLC now owns 31,207 shares of the company’s stock worth $169,000 after buying an additional 1,865 shares in the last quarter. Steward Partners Investment Advisory LLC grew its stake in BigBear.ai by 22.3% in the 2nd quarter. Steward Partners Investment Advisory LLC now owns 10,344 shares of the company’s stock valued at $70,000 after acquiring an additional 1,885 shares during the last quarter. Pure Financial Advisors LLC increased its holdings in BigBear.ai by 19.4% during the 3rd quarter. Pure Financial Advisors LLC now owns 12,060 shares of the company’s stock valued at $79,000 after acquiring an additional 1,960 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Toth Financial Advisory Corp increased its holdings in BigBear.ai by 20.0% during the 3rd quarter. Toth Financial Advisory Corp now owns 12,000 shares of the company’s stock valued at $78,000 after acquiring an additional 2,000 shares in the last quarter. 7.55% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

BigBear.ai Trading Up 0.8%

The business’s 50-day simple moving average is $5.12 and its 200-day simple moving average is $5.88. The company has a market cap of $1.82 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -3.83 and a beta of 3.49. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, a current ratio of 1.78 and a quick ratio of 3.13.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last posted its earnings results on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. The firm had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative return on equity of 18.22% and a negative net margin of 230.21%.BigBear.ai’s revenue was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned ($0.43) EPS. Research analysts predict that BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. will post -0.28 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.