Brokers Set Expectations for Geo Group Q1 Earnings

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Analysts at Noble Financial issued their Q1 2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Geo Group in a note issued to investors on Tuesday, February 17th. Noble Financial analyst J. Gomes forecasts that the real estate investment trust will post earnings of $0.21 per share for the quarter. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $0.83 per share. Noble Financial also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q2 2026 earnings at $0.30 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $0.35 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.39 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.26 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.43 EPS.

GEO has been the topic of several other reports. Wall Street Zen raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 13th. JonesTrading cut their price target on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, February 13th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $34.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

Shares of Geo Group stock opened at $15.32 on Wednesday. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $16.34 and its 200 day moving average price is $17.96. Geo Group has a twelve month low of $12.81 and a twelve month high of $32.09. The company has a current ratio of 2.01, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. The stock has a market capitalization of $2.13 billion, a P/E ratio of 8.42 and a beta of 0.73.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The firm had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $667.23 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted $0.13 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its holdings in Geo Group by 245.1% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares during the last quarter. IFP Advisors Inc acquired a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth approximately $30,000. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% in the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares during the last quarter. Bayforest Capital Ltd acquired a new stake in Geo Group in the fourth quarter valued at $37,000. Finally, LSV Asset Management acquired a new stake in Geo Group in the third quarter valued at $61,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Valuation and operational upside — A Seeking Alpha piece argues GEO is “out of favor” after a >34% pullback, presenting an attractive entry: the author highlights contract wins, ICE expansion, an EV/EBITDA around 6.8x and projected EBITDA growth through 2029, and notes aggressive buybacks as potential upside drivers. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst multi-year projections above consensus — Noble Financial published a set of forward EPS forecasts (FY2026 $1.26, FY2027 $1.43) that imply materially higher earnings than the current street consensus (~$0.83), suggesting some analysts see meaningful upside over time if guidance and contract performance hold. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst Q&A from the earnings call — A roundup of “5 must-read analyst questions” from GEO’s Q4 call provides management color on contracts, cash flow, capital allocation and risks; this helps investors parse the results but does not in itself change fundamentals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Policy and political sensitivity — A Seeking Alpha note warns GEO remains highly sensitive to policy dynamics (immigration enforcement, ICE funding and public/political backlash). That sensitivity can amplify volatility and compress valuation despite operational wins. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst estimate cut on FY2026 — Noble trimmed its FY2026 EPS view from $1.38 to $1.26, a sign that some near‑term expectations were moderated even as multi‑year forecasts remain constructive; downward revisions can pressure sentiment if they persist. Read More.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.