Cairn Homes (LON:CRN) outlined what management described as a strong 2025 performance and raised its 2026 financial guidance, citing “exceptional demand,” a growing multi-year order book, and an operating model that it said is scaling efficiently across its active development platform.
2025 results: revenue near €945 million and margin expansion
Chief Executive Officer Michael Stanley said the company delivered revenue “just shy of €945 million” in 2025 from 2,365 new homes sold. Chief Financial Officer Richard Ball reported full-year revenue of €944.6 million, up 10% year-on-year.
Dividend increase and returns to shareholders
Stanley said the company would return €0.10 per share in dividends, including a proposed final dividend of €0.059 to be paid in May. Management said this represented year-on-year dividend growth of 22% and that the proposed final dividend reflected a 47% payout ratio.
Ball also stated the company has returned over €490 million to shareholders since the start of 2019, including the newly proposed final dividend.
Upgraded 2026 guidance and 2027 unit target
Management upgraded its outlook for 2026, with Stanley and Ball guiding to:
- Revenue: €1.05 billion to €1.08 billion
- Operating profit: €180 million to €185 million
- Return on equity: circa 16.5%
Looking further ahead, management introduced unit guidance of approximately 3,200 homes for 2027, which it said implies a 35% increase in output over a two-year period. Stanley told analysts that the 3,200 projection for 2027 is “all on active sites,” not on uncommenced projects, and said the company would not have issued the target without confidence in delivery.
Stanley also noted that adverse weather created a “somewhat challenging start” to the year, but said the company remains confident it can recover time and meet upgraded guidance.
Order book growth, work-in-progress investment, and balance sheet position
Stanley said Cairn’s multi-year order book increased to €1.32 billion, with a “significant portion” of growth coming from first-time buyer sales. He added that the company had launched 11 new private schemes in 2025 and achieved an average weekly sales rate of 4.2 homes.
On forward visibility, Stanley said the company already has “just over 2,000” homes closed and forward sold for 2026. He also cited forward sales of 1,374 homes and “over €500 million” of revenue for 2027 and 2028.
Ball detailed cash flow dynamics, saying a heavy first-half investment translated into “significant” cash generation in the second half. He reported net cash from operating activities of €189.3 million in the second half and €70.6 million for the full year, after a net investment in work in progress of €167.4 million and shareholder returns of €54.7 million.
Management highlighted a larger asset base and what it characterized as modest leverage relative to assets. Ball said total investment in land and work in progress was €1.12 billion, net debt was €171.3 million, and debt-to-gross asset value stood at 17.8%. He added that Cairn has €500 million of committed debt facilities with an average maturity of nearly four years. Stanley said total assets were €1.3 billion, including land and WIP investment of over €1.1 billion.
Affordability focus, policy backdrop, and land strategy
Stanley emphasized affordability and the company’s efforts to manage cost inflation. He said that over the last five years Cairn delivered close to 9,000 homes and that the company’s average selling price increased 4.9% over that period, compared with nearly 30% for the broader Irish new home market, based on figures he referenced. He contrasted those trends with construction cost indicators he cited, including a Tender Price Index increase of close to 39% over five years to 2025 and a Capital Goods Price Index increase of 28%.
On housing policy, Stanley described government direction toward higher densities and greater apartment delivery. He said a large majority of residentially zoned land is now mandated for medium- and high-density development, which aligns with Cairn’s capabilities in mixed-tenure schemes. He also discussed the role of state-funded partners and referenced demand dynamics for apartments, including interest returning from “PRS capital” and transactions in multifamily.
During Q&A, Stanley said the company is increasingly focused on strategic land opportunities, including off-market transactions and option deals, in some cases involving land that is not yet zoned. He suggested shareholders should expect more information over time on partnerships and joint ventures. Ball added that structured transactions can reduce initial capital outlay and support return on equity, noting that gross margin may be lower in some cases but returns can benefit if work in progress is forward funded.
Ball said Cairn controls a land bank of 18,400 units across 39 sites, plus a strategic land bank of about 2,000 units and a land pipeline of about 6,000 units across 12 sites in exclusive negotiations, options, partnerships, and joint ventures. He provided average plot cost details for the wholly owned land bank, including an overall average plot cost of €37,000.
On cost outlook, Ball said Cairn realized build cost inflation of about 1% in 2025 and stated that the company is “75% procured” on active sites for 2026 and about “50% procured” for 2027. Stanley added that geopolitical uncertainty could affect the supply chain and said the company would monitor developments closely.
Management also pointed to infrastructure as an execution variable, with Stanley referencing improvements in energy connections and water infrastructure and highlighting the government’s Accelerating Infrastructure Taskforce as supportive of delivery.
About Cairn Homes (LON:CRN)
Cairn Homes plc, a holding company, operates as a home and community builder in Ireland. The company engages in the development and sale of residential properties, as well as rental of properties. It also provides financial services. Cairn Homes plc was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
