BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Price Up 3.8% on Better-Than-Expected Earnings

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI)’s share price rose 3.8% during mid-day trading on Monday following a better than expected earnings announcement. The stock traded as high as $4.19 and last traded at $4.11. Approximately 49,666,923 shares changed hands during mid-day trading, a decline of 25% from the average daily volume of 66,462,453 shares. The stock had previously closed at $3.96.

The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.05) by $0.04. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 21.44%. The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $33.31 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted ($0.43) earnings per share. BigBear.ai’s revenue was down 37.7% compared to the same quarter last year.

BigBear.ai News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Balance-sheet repair — management reported a large reduction in debt and a much stronger liquidity/cash position, which reduces near-term financing risk and supports future investment. BigBear.ai Resets Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions — recent deals (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add FedRAMP access and recurring revenue streams tied to federal and border security use cases, improving the company’s addressable market and revenue quality. MarketBeat coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS beat but revenue miss — BigBear.ai reported a smaller-than-expected loss per share, modestly beating EPS estimates, but revenue of $27.3M missed consensus. That EPS beat tempers concern but the revenue miss is the larger signal for growth. Zacks: Q4 results
• Neutral Sentiment: Longer-term targets and presentation — management outlined a 17% revenue growth target and an investor presentation highlighting strategic focus areas; useful for medium-term thesis but not immediately accretive. Seeking Alpha: Growth target
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue guidance came in light — FY2026 revenue guidance of $135.0M–$165.0M was below the roughly $167.7M consensus, signaling slower near-term topline recovery and likely driving downside pressure. Business Wire: Q4 results & guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst reactions trimmed — Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $5 (now Neutral) and HC Wainwright reduced its target to $6 (still Buy), signaling tempered upside and contributing to selling pressure. Benzinga: analyst moves
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue decline and program softness — management attributed Q4 revenue weakness to lower volume on certain military programs, highlighting sensitivity to defense customer activity and near-term revenue volatility. Seeking Alpha: revenue miss

Analysts Set New Price Targets

BBAI has been the topic of a number of analyst reports. HC Wainwright reduced their price target on BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday. Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a report on Wednesday, January 21st. Cantor Fitzgerald dropped their price target on BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered shares of BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Saturday, January 10th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $5.00.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 5,000 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Thursday, December 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $7.06, for a total value of $35,300.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer owned 488,716 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $3,450,334.96. This represents a 1.01% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Insiders own 0.54% of the company’s stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On BigBear.ai

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. CWM LLC increased its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 237.5% during the third quarter. CWM LLC now owns 4,640 shares of the company’s stock worth $30,000 after buying an additional 3,265 shares in the last quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. grew its position in BigBear.ai by 3,355.6% during the 3rd quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. now owns 4,976 shares of the company’s stock worth $32,000 after acquiring an additional 4,832 shares during the last quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC grew its position in BigBear.ai by 617.5% during the 4th quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC now owns 5,381 shares of the company’s stock worth $29,000 after acquiring an additional 4,631 shares during the last quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. raised its position in BigBear.ai by 150.9% in the fourth quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 5,640 shares of the company’s stock valued at $30,000 after purchasing an additional 3,392 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Nisa Investment Advisors LLC boosted its stake in shares of BigBear.ai by 68.4% during the second quarter. Nisa Investment Advisors LLC now owns 6,222 shares of the company’s stock valued at $42,000 after purchasing an additional 2,527 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 7.55% of the company’s stock.

BigBear.ai Stock Performance

The company has a fifty day moving average price of $5.16 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $5.89. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, a current ratio of 3.13 and a quick ratio of 3.13. The company has a market capitalization of $1.66 billion, a P/E ratio of -3.81 and a beta of 3.49.

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.